DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEMS IN AUGUST AND THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER TO DECEMBER 2004

5.0 DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEMS IN AUGUST 2004

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) decreased from -0.7 in July to -0.9 in August 2004. Warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) dominated western and central parts of equatorial Pacific Ocean while colder than average SSTs persisted over the eastern parts of the same Ocean basin. Warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) also dominated much of the tropical Atlantic Ocean extending to south-western parts of the Indian Ocean. Colder that average SSTs were also observed over much of eastern, central and northern parts of the Indian Ocean.

6.0 CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER TO DECEMBER 2004

6.1 Climate outlook

The statistical and coupled model forecasts by most advanced climate Centres indicate that El-Niño conditions will continue to develop during the next three months. The El-Niño conditions coupled with the prevailing Sea Surface Temperature (SST) pattern over the Atlantic and Indian Ocean are likely to enhance rainfall over the equatorial sector.

6.2 Outlook for October - December 2004

October to December constitutes an important rainfall season over much of the Greater Horn of Africa sub-region. The October to December 2004 rainfall outlook for the sub-region is given below.

Much of Burundi, Uganda and Somalia, southern and northeastern Sudan, northern Eritrea, western and central Ethiopia, southern Djibouti, coastal, central and western Kenya, northeastern and western Tanzania as well as southern Rwanda are likely to experience near to above normal rainfall. Central Sudan, northern and eastern Ethiopia, western Somalia, northern Kenya, southwestern Uganda, northwestern and Rwanda, eastern Burundi and much of Tanzania are likely to experience near to below normal rainfall (See figure below)

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