The socio-economic impact indicators highlighted in this bulletin include anomalies in vegetation conditions and indicators associated with too much or too little rainfall.

7.1 Vegetation Conditions Indicators

During the month of November 2002, the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from the satellite imagery indicates well established vegetation cover over western and coastal parts of Tanzania, southern and central Somalia as well as Uganda. On the other hand, a progressive deterioration of vegetation was evident over central and western parts of Ethiopia extending to parts of Kenya and Tanzania. Meanwhile, poor vegetation conditions continued to be observed over northern Sudan, northern Kenya, most of Eritrea, northern Somalia and central Tanzania including Republic of Djibouti.

7.2 Impacts of observed climatic conditions
 
 This section presents the main socio-economic impacts of observed rainfall and temperatures over the GHA sub-region during November 2002.
 
As in the previous month, most of the northern sector continued to be characterised by dry conditions. Medium to high soil moisture conditions associated with good rainfall was observed over southern Sudan, western Uganda and central Somalia. Similarly, a significant improvement in soil moisture was observed over these areas particularly in the highlands of central Kenya and parts of eastern and southwestern Uganda. Below are impacts associated with either lack of rainfall or excessive rainfall.

7.2.1 Disasters, Human settlement, health and public safety

•  Increased cases of water-borne and water related diseases such as malaria and cholera;
•  Structural damage to human shelters and settlements;
•  Disruption of human comfort and social activities.

7.2.2 Agriculture, Food security and Livestock development

 Much of the northern sector and a few areas in the equatorial and southern sectors continued to receive low rainfall during the month of November. This condition impacted on Agriculture, food security and livestock as follows:

• Almost total crop failure in the affected areas especially in the northern sector due to soil moisture stress. Food shortage crisis aggravated;
•  No support for regeneration of pasture and browse for livestock;
•  Rising losses in livestock.

In other areas in the sub region, moderate to heavy rainfall was observed. This led to the following impacts:

•  Sustenance of planted food and cash crops;
•  Increased yield of perennial cash crops such as coffee and tea;
•  Regeneration of pasture and browse for both livestock and wildlife;
•  Improved nutrition due to increased milk production.

7.2.3 Energy, Industry and Environment

•  Land slides and soil erosion aggravated environmental degradation;
•  Optimal conditions for Hydropower generation.

7.2.4 Water resources, transport and communications

•  Disrupted transport and communication in some areas due to localised destruction of infrastructure;
•  Improved availability of clean water for domestic, industrial, and other socio-economic use;
•  Recharging of water in rivers, wells and underground reservoirs resulting in improved availability of clean water for domestic, industrial, and other socio-economic use;

7.3 Sustained impacts
 
Many of the marginal areas and some parts of the high rainfall potential areas in the equatorial parts of the of the sub-region continued to experience severe soil moisture stress, during the month as a result of cumulative rainfall deficits from previous dekads. Consequently, various impacts associated with prolonged drought continued to be observed particularly over much of Eritrea, Ethiopia and parts of Somalia in the northern sector and parts of arid, semi-arid and even some of the high rainfall potential areas of the equatorial sector. The sustained impacts of the prolonged drought during November included the following:

•  Food shortages reaching crisis levels leading to high cases of malnutrition and diseases;
•  Poor pasture conditions negatively affecting livestock production;
•  Migration of pastoralists with their livestock in search of limited water and pasture;
•  Inter-human conflicts and conflicts between animals and humans over limited water and pasture;
•  Need for relief food and other humanitarian assistance that require international intervention;
•  Congestion of large numbers of humans and animals over small areas leading to degradation of the environment.