THE TRADITIONAL RAINFALL INDICATORS USED TO MONITOR AND PREDICT RAINFALL IN KENYA

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APPLICATION OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE INFORMATION

Participants in Kathonzweni and Kisumu Workshops’ respectively, were asked whether they received meteorological forecasts/reports through the radio or print media. They acknowledged that they receive the forecasts over the radio but sometimes found them inaccurate. They attributed this inaccuracy to the relative location of the reference stations used. As regards Kathonzweni, Makindu is usually mentioned in the forecasts as the reference station for the lowland region between Machakos and Voi. The station does not seem to represent the climate of Kathonzweni.

They felt that any weather forecast for Makindu is unlikely to affect them since Makindu is due south and any phenomena forecast for Makindu is likely to drift away from their location towards Kajiado District. They suggested that the forecasts should be down scaled sufficiently so that they received forecasts for their specific area. They felt they were on the wrong side of the Mbui Nzau hill near Kibwezi, which they felt lee-shadowed them. Similarly, for Lake Victoria basin, stations used are Kisii, Kisumu and Kakamega which do not represent the climate of the low altitude areas of the basin. There is need for more stations to make their representation.
A number of politicians and community leaders would have liked their communities to be involvedin the studyBut it was not possible to involve everyone in this phase due to the limited resources available.
In Kisumu, the District Commissioner, who came from pastoral community, was impressed with the study which he described as a useful step since most communities still depended on the traditional method.

RECOMMENDATIONS AND WAYFORWARD

It was observed from the study that:

• Traditional indicators are still widely used in Kenya as modes of rainfall forecasting and land use management.
• The indicators are mostly local and are well understood in the communities and are easily discussed.
• The specific indicators vary from community to community and location to location.
• The indicators have a scientific bearing, which is not understood.
• The communities believe in rain-making and the power to stop lightning and rain.
• Large gaps exist in regard to availability and application of the scientific forecasts issued from the KMD and DMCN, given the fact that meteorological information are limited to urban population and a few enlightened rural communities, who make little use of such information.
• The frequently used traditional indicators included Plants, Birds, Insects ( bees, butterfly, red ants, termites (ngwen), Stars(sun, milk way), Hill shadows, Moon ,Winds (direction, strength and time of starting and ending),Clouds(position and movement), Lightning (location and patterns),Springs and swamps, Amphibians (frogs and toads),Whirl wind (dust devils) and Water spout ().

It was, therefore, recommended that:

• The identified indicators should be monitored in the current location of studies for a period of at least one year to provide information on the performance and scientific interpretations.
• Similar studies should be carried out at more locations to map out important indicators that can contribute to scientific methods of forecasting and improve on the skill and application of forecasts.
• Traditional indicators should be documented for the benefit of future generations.
• Meteorology and traditional norms of socialization, beliefs, skills, climate indicators and knowledge should be included in the school curriculum.
• The traditional indicators should be protected to help us adapt to the environment in which we live.
• The climate scientists, botanists, zoologists and traditional-weather experts should work closely in understanding and documenting traditional indicators.
• The study should be extended to cover more parts of the country since the indicators vary from place to place depending on cultures.
• The cultural knowledge gained through long experience and observations should be utilizalised to improve the skill of seasonal climate outlook.

CONCLUSION

Traditional forecasting methods are still very popular in Kenya. They are still the most used methods for farm management and food production. The traditional forecasters and rainmakers are still respected people, are held in high esteem by their communities where they live, and their advise is always taken seriously. The study raised a lot of interest, enthusiasm and hope. Various national leaders stressed the interest to include more communities to collect and document the information on a practice on which the majority have depended for many generations.
The scientific interpretation of the indicators and the involvement of the traditional forecasters would help in bridging the gap between the modern and traditional methods of forecasting for the benefit of the rural communities, who form the largest percentage of the population of the country. Working closely with the traditional forecasters help merge the traditional and scientific methods of forecasting and would also improve the trust and would enable hasten the distribution of climate outlooks.
This project has enhanced the confidence of the rural communities, involved in the study, in the modern scientific methods of climate prediction. They are very willing to work with the DMCN and KMD to enhance the skill and dissemination of the climate outlooks. They are also willing to work with the climate scientists to provide scientific interpretation of the indicators.

The project has brought into focus very useful aspects for disaster management. The indigenous knowledge is a useful climate information for areas where climate records are non-existent.

REFERENCE:

Anyamba E K(1983): On the monthly mean lower tropospheric circulation and anomalous circulation during the 1961/62 floods in Eat Africa. Msc thesis, Department of Meteorlogy, University of Nairobi, Kenya.

Agumba F O(1985):Fluctuation of long rains in Kenya in relation to large scale circulation. IMTR Nairobi, Kenya Res. Report No.1/85,27pp.

Camberlin P(1997):Rainfall anomalies in the source of the Nile and their connection with the Indian Summer monsoon.J Climate,10, PP 1380-1392.

EAMD(1962): The climate seasons of East AFRICA. EAMD Pamphlet No.8. Nairobi, Kenya, 1962

Mukabana J R and R A Pielke(1993):Three dimensional modeling of the large-scale flows and their interaction with the local meso-scale circulation over Kenya. Proc. First Intern. Conf. SMA, Nairobi, Kenya, 8-12 February 1993.

Okoola R E A (1996) Space- time characteristics of the ITCZ over equatorial Eastern Africa during anomalous rainfall years. PhD Thesis Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Kenya, 251 pp.