| INTRODUCTION
Climate variability
has a large influence on the lives of the communities in Kenya. The
climate elements with the largest influence are rainfall and temperature.
Rainfall is, however, the single most important element for the activities
of the many of the Kenyan communities who depend on rain-ed subsistence
agriculture for their livelihood .
The human being
has lived with and experienced climate related disasters throughout
the time of his existence. Climate might have been more cruel and hostile
in the past millions of years than it is today. Many animals must have
perished during that time but man lives by culture rather than instinct
in order to remain alive.
. Kenya has two
major rainfall seasons experienced in a year with one occurring in March-May(long
rains) and the other in October- December (short rains) (EAMD,1962).
However, the western Highlands and Coastal areas receive significant
rainfall during the period June – August. The failure of a rainfall
seasons, as was experienced in 1984, 1999 and 2000, has adverse impacts
on the communities in Kenya and at certain times leads to large loses
of lives. The excess rainfall, as was experienced in 1961 and 1997/98,
also affects the well-being of the communities and at times leads to
loss of life and and damage to property and infrastructure. This significance
of rainfall made the communities in Kenya, as was over other parts of
Africa, to develop their own traditional methods to monitor, predict
and even “make rainfall.”
Before the advent of modern scientific methods, the communities in Kenya
They must have realized that some animals, birds, insects and plants
had the capacity to monitor and detect the changes in the atmospheric
conditions and learnt their behaviours as a way of predicting the future
climate. The level of human cultural development corresponds to his
suffering when a disaster strikes. More people, living in high towers
perished when earthquakes occurred than did those of a population with
low level of cultural development. Equally, populations with low-level
technological cultured development learnt much from the behaviour of
plants, animals and insects with high body sensitivity and instincts.
They also mastered the positions of stars, the sun and associated shadows
and the moon, the wind strength and direction and the cloud position
and movement and the lightning patterns. The knowledge about past disasters
and climate in Africa are the accumulated experiences that have been
handed down to generations through oral traditions.
The “rainmakers” were highly, respected and continue to
be held in high esteem, respected people by their respective communities.
It is important to understand how they could monitor and predict rainstorms,
windstorms, earthquakes, lightning, drought or seasonal rains. The traditional
cognitive act is that rain could be perceived, cold or strong wind could
be felt, movement of clouds could be seen while thunder and lightning
could be heard and seen, respectively. Older members could feel the
changes in atmospheric conditions before the eyes and ears could detect
anything. Traditionally humankind, must have realized that plants, animals,
birds and insects are also affected and could feel changes in atmospheric
conditions much earlier. Traditional forecasters recognized that some
plants, birds, insects and animals are more sensitive to the changes
in the atmospheric conditions than others including human beings. They
began to depend on their early behaviour and movements. They also recognized
that in every season, some trees shade off their leaves and they marked
these trees and periods. They further mastered the position and organization
of the strength and direction of wind, the position of the sun and the
associated shadows, the patterns of lightning, the conditions of swamps,
temperatures as felt by the body and position and movement of clouds.
It was through these cognitive acts that marked the sources of traditional
knowledge and experience we are beginning to record in Kenya. Sometimes,
curiosity and long time observation of what happens around us is what
we normally call experience because nature has the habit of repeating
itself.
The main objective
of the study is to record traditional weather/ and climate monitoring
and prediction indicators and establish the scientific interpretation
to harmonize them with the modern scientific methods. The study also
aimes at learning the terminologies used by the traditional forecastors
so as to improve the dissemination of seasonal climate outlooks to their
respective communities . The study recognized that the rural communities,
who continue to rely heavily on traditional methods and climate outlooks
may only understand and interpret the terminologies used by the traditional
forecasters.
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