THE TRADITIONAL RAINFALL INDICATORS USED TO MONITOR AND PREDICT RAINFALL IN KENYA

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TRADITIONAL RAINFALL INDICATORS USED BY COMMUNITIES IN KENYA

In this study, the communities considered are the Luo, Abasuba and the Abaluhya

Tradional indicators among the Luos, of Kisumu District

Among the Luo community, the rainfall indicators used include plants, animals, insects, wind, clouds, temperature, stars, the moon, and wetlands (thidhya). The indicators and their signs are listed below.

Plant indicators

A number of plants are used as indicators. They are listed below:

• Manera (Terminalia brownii) is a tree, which normally grows very big and shades the leaves to signal dry conditions.
• Ngowo (Ficus sur) drops its leaves twice a year.
• Waa (Tamarindus indica) also drops/ shades its leaves twice a year
• Yago (Kigelia africana) drops/ shades off its leaves thrice a year
• Ober (Albizia coriaria) shades its leaves once a year
• Saye (Acacia gerrardii) shades its leaves twice a year
• Bongu (Ficus ovata) shades its leaves twice a year
• Opok (Terminalia mollis) shades its leaves once a year
• Amboro shades its leaves twice a year
• Juelu shades its leaves twice a year
• Olemb-ajwa and Olemb-ochok bloom their flowers twice a year
• Ruga shades its leaves once a year
• Ochuoga ( shades off its leaves twice a year showing both long and short rain seasons)
• Siala shades its leaves thrice a year, but others maintained that Siala shades its leave only twice a year.

Fig.2: The tree used by Nganyi rainmakers to monitor rainfall.

The shading of leaves is an indication of water stress associated with dry conditions. The trees shade the leaves to reduce evapotranspiration and would put on the leaves when the rains approach. Some plants used to monitor seasons include:

• Maup pap (Zephranthus) is a “field flower plant” the Amaryllis family that appears a week or two before the rains storm is an indicator of rain – but both may disappear for long as the number of years of dry season may last. These blossoms and plants appear white when there is plenty of rains and pinkish during a duration of rainfall deficiency.
• Awuor-awuor is one or two lived clover, which share the name with the insect usually found in the shade buried under the dust also called “Awuor-awuor”.This plant, though grows under the tree shades, will dry up by a one day cold wind, suggesting a weather change.
• Otonglo seasonal plants are available during wet/ rainy seasons and Ayila/ Aila plants are very abundant during the long rains/ wet season, and are also common along the riverside or hilly bushes. The Ayila plants are only in abundance during the long rainy seasons and appear for a short time during short rainy season.
• Ruga - falling of white flowers.
• Yuoma (Erythrina excelsa)
• Orembe – when ? start shading off red flowers, the planting season would commence because the wet/ rainy season is just about to start.
• Oluoro chieng’ (a shrub) as the name suggests occurred only during wet/ rainy season and dry up quickly during dry season.
• Awayo eaten by children grazing is also seen only during rainy season
• Maup-pap (Rhamphicarpa) commonly found in Angugo plain and between Ong’oche and Othoch-rakuom and between Nyatike and Ong’er comes up with the slightest sign of rain.
• Anyim, the seed may stay in the soil for years when the rainfall is not sufficient for it to grow.
• Nyaite agwen (four leaved clover) or Nyaite abich (five leaved clover) are seasonal Cloves.
• Obwanda is another seasonal vegetable that are never seen during dry season, sometimes even during short rain season.
• Ochol and Ondati are trees known for their slow growth.
• Nyabend-winy grows only in wet bushy places. It requires a lot of shades; can disappear when the bushy places also disappear.
• Nyalwet-kwach is a shrub, usually used as medicinal plant, but is disappearing first because of burning of forests.Kasigo-jaleny-thee (is a plant which share the name with oil pot) and Odo-do are also sensitive to dry weather and dry up early even before the rain disappear completely.
• Nyabend-pi (blue lotus or water lily) is interesting in that unless the season has changed and rain has come it will never blossom despite the fact that it grows inthe water.

Animals

Certain seasonal cries of birds were believed to be communicating messages of changes in weather/climate. This birds include the Hundthwe (Robin chat), Kalanini and especially Kow-wach the night bird which has a sharp long cry. Both Kalanini and Kow-wach usually disappear for several months and only reappear when a season begin. It was also confirmed that some birds change their cry every season.

The absence of frogs and toads indicates dry season and during the dry season frogs seldom croak. – When frogs stopped croaking during the rainy season even when it was still raining. It was also an indication fo the disappearance of rain. The African elders and “rain makers” would begin to inform the people of the impending dry season. The frogs stopped “playing around” and begun digging themselves deep into the mud when the soil was still wet.

The presence of snakes and other reptiles and at times wild animals around houses and homestead in search of water and food showed the prevalence and continuity of a dry spell.

During the rainy season, daily rainfalls were predicted by the changing songs and cries of the Robin chat – Cossypha caffra or Semirufa (Hundhwe). . The presence of Aluo Aluo (a long necked bird) that could be seen once in a while during the rainy season, showed a reduction in rains; thus its presence indicated changes in weather showing that the end of the season was soon to be experienced. The following are birds which were mentioned as indicators of wet / rainy season.

• Opija (Hirundo abyssinica and Hinindo smithic) are common swallows with circular movements in the sky when rain is forming and when wind is blowing it towards the settlement or homestead.
• Agak (Corrus albicoelis)
• Ogungo (ibis)
• Nyabalakwasi and Koga are birds which fly very high above the clouds, therefore could feel moisture from a distance – they acted like the “African aerial” to detect rainy season was approaching.
• Tel tel and Ondiek ti ochiem were said to ask questions like “Why don’t you plant?| or “Dak ti ukom? which means the rains were now there for the preparation for planting/ weeding.
• Ang’etho (a bird which looks like an eagle) was heard crying around the rivers, it showed that the rains were soon starting. Its cry was like an alarm to be ready for rains.
• - The presence of the Okok bird in the fields also indicated that soon the rainy season was ready, thus showing the rains would continue.
• Kalanini (koth chew-chwee) bird reminded people that rains were near and they should start preparing for it.
• Magungugungu birds when seen hovering and flying over the area would indicate planting season/ rains were in process. The other birds used as indicator of seasons include:
  • Nyakwadha birds
  • Kerende birds
  • Gwer gwer birds
  • Oteko (dek tin) birds
  • Mire
  • Tutu-ted akwacha

Insect indicators

• The presence of Aguyo (butterfly) presence in large numbers created controversy; some members argued that their presence act as an indicator for drought continuity whereas others argued the opposite.
• Safari ants also acting as an indicator of seasonal change created controversy; some elders argue that Safari ants and termites curry food and store it just before heavy rains start, while others argued that ants would carry food and store before the onset of dry season.
• Chwer Ngwen (termites) showed the reduction of rainfall and the approach of drought.

There are five types of army ants (Ngini-ngini) that are used as indicators. They include:

• Katalang’ – black large poisonous ants
• Tho-morno – red large ants
• Omonyio – medium size ants rather harmless
• Ong’ino – small red ants
• Ong’ind kombe kombe – the large dark red tree ants.

These ants’ movements are good indicator of wet/ rainy season approaching and when transporting food or their eggs is a clear indication of the closeness to a rainy season. However, there are controversies on the particular season the ants transport their food and eggs.

• The presence of Agoro ants signal a sign of continuous rain season.
• The appearance of Oyala ants sometimes shows no rains on that particular night; however, rains are still falling
• The appearance of Onyoso ants showed continuity in rains.
• When Kungu (Army worms) appear, people long for rain, which would normally make them grow quickly.

All the above are known insects associated with rains or wet season. When dry season approaches only ants and butterflies are seen frequently.

Wind, Clouds and Temperature

Mzee Tobias Otieno asserts that the direction of strong winds noticed in Achuth hills blowing strongly from Maasai hills towards the Lake during afternoon further indicated dry period were to follow. The entire group members agreed, “a lot of wind with dust covering the air shows a dry spell was to continue coupled with hunger”.

The direction and strength of wind is used by the communities to mark the beginning of rains and possible performance. The whirlwind(Kalausi-in Nyanza) is a clear indicator of approaching wet season. However, strong easterly winds (Komadhi) marks dry spell and in years when it sustains itself beyond March the communities in the Lake Victoria basin expect a poor March-May rainfall season.

Stars and the moon

Some elders mentioned the movement of stars in relation to weather and the change of the seasons . The constellation (yugni) were identified as yugni-machwo (orion) and yugni mammon (the sisters). They represent the male constellation and the female constellation. They are several in numbers. The female stars are usually many but we can see only 7 of them; they move from the East to the West followed by the male yugni (six stars). Their appearance from the East showed a decline in rains thus showing the start of the drought. It appears from the discussions that female constellations indicate the season of cultivation and appearance of male constellation was associated with the beginning of dry season or harvesting. A particular star called “Rip” when seen showed a dry spell/ drought could follow or come soon. The position of April, milk-way at a particular season is remembered by elders. They say Arip (milky-way) appears to be crossing the sky from North to South. Some elders suggested that Arip keeps on changing its position every three months, suggested some elders.

Traditional rainfall indicators among Abasuba of Mfangano, Rusinga and Gwasi

The Abasuba community are sett;ed on Islands (Mfangano and Rusinga) in Lake Victoria and the highlands next to the Lake (Gwasi). Their seasonal weather and climate indicators include plants, animals, insects, wind, clouds and temperatures among others. The presence of low clouds or fog in the morning in (Migingo Island) in Lake Victoria and the Huma hills in Rachuonyo District on the shores of the Lake indicated that it would rain sometimes in the course of the month or weeks. Other indicator include the formation and movement of clouds on specific hills and in specify direction.

Plants

The plants used by the Abasuba community have large similarities to those discussed under the Luo community. They only differ in the naming. Hence, the trees covered under the Luo community indicators are also used by the Abasuba and shall not be repeated here..

Animals

The birds called Magungu in Suba language form one single major indicator. They mark the closeness to rainfall onset and signal for speeding up land preparations. These birds pass from south to North during the period February/March. They fly very high without much effort. They seem to float in the air. The birds might be associated with the movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The Lake Victoria basin falls in the area of deep convection, which might explain the cause for high flights. Another indicator commonly used among the communities are the frogs and toads, whose appearances indicate the improvement of the moisture in the atmosphere and the closeness of the rainfall onset.

A black eagle called in the local language Koga is the best indicator of changing weather because it can go higher in the sky than any bird”. Like plants, a number of animals used by the Luo community are also used by the Abasuba.

Insects

The appearance of a swarm of insects (Isami in the Suba language) moving from the West to East is a major indicator of rainfall onset and performance. The frequency and the density of Isami indicates whether the season will be good or not. The years when the isami is late and less frequent is associated with late onset and rainfall deficiency. The high frequency and density is associated with a good season. Studies have indicated that deep westerlies are associated with good rains in western Kenya ( Mukabana and Pielke,1993; Anyamba,1983; Okoola, 1996). The other authors who have looked at the influence of wind on rainfall in the region include Agumba (1985) and Camberlin (1997).

Fig:3a. Zonal wind composite anomaly for the dry October-November – December (OND) years in Kenya as listed.

Fig: 3b850HPa Zonal wind composite anomaly for the wet October-November- December (OND) years in Kenya as listed.

The frequent and dense westerlies are indications of a well development moist airmass from the Congo Basin, which has a high influence on the rainfall of western Kenya and the Lake Victoria Basin.

The spider is another indicator of seasons. It is associated with the occurrence of Isami. They fix their webs across the wind to trap isami (the insects). Frequent spider webs are an indication of a good season. Similar approach is used in Mozamqique to determine the strength of the monsoons by the traditional forecasters (through personal communication). The distinct patterns of zonal wind anomalies associated with dry (fig.3a) and wet (fig.3b) spells continue to confirm why the traditional forecasters and “rain makers” use wind direction and strength as a rainfall indicator. Further studies need to be carried out to address the potential of wind as a rainfall indicator.

The Abasuba communities also use red ants (Masanduku), which only appear when the moisture level of the atmosphere is improved. They mark the closeness of the rainfall onset.

Winds, Clouds, and temperature.

The mainstay of Abasuba is fishing. Being frequent sailors, they have mastered the winds and cloud movements. They also use their traditional methods to monitor the Lake water temperature. The cold Lake Victoria temperatures are known to signal dry conditions.
The Abasuba Suba know so well that if the easterly wind (Ekomanzi) continues beyond mid- March into April, there would be a likelihood of rainfall deficiency in the March-May rainfall season. The same signal is used for October- December rainfall season. Figure 3 provides a clear distinction in the wind anomalies associated with wet and dry conditions in Kenya for OND rainfall season. They also know that the formation and movement of clouds are significant to monitor and predict rainfall occurrence and performance. There are specific locations, which if frequented by clouds and lightning would signal a good rainfall season. The other indicator of rainfall performance is the frequency of water sprouts on Lake Victoria. The rainfall is expected to be abundant in years when the frequency of the water sprouts is high.

The unusual heavy rainy seasons are expected to be followed with a rainfall deficient season or drought. It is this time that elders give advice to the people to plant drought resistant plants such as budho (Pumpkin), Boo (Cow peas), Omuogo (Cassava), Sweet potatoes, Millet and sorghum. The elders mentioned that it was very important to plant the above-mentioned food crops as “food security” come the dry season. The extreme rise in temperatures, continuous clear blue sky with little or no cloud cover at all would indicate prolonged dry period.

Traditional Indicators Among The Akamba of Kathonzweni Division of Makueni District

General

Farmers in this community mentioned a pool of twenty (20) rainfall indicators (Table 5) used at different stages of the rainfall season. Plant indicators make 60% of the pool and mainly indicate the rains are about to start, thereby giving farmers opportunity to plan farm activities, especially farm preparations and planting. Figure 1 – 3 shows some plants used to monitor and predict rain.

Animals form 15% of the indicators and seem to apply when the rainfall season is in progress. The noise they make tell farmers about the nature of the rains already in progress. For example, the sharp cries of the millipede indicate the rains in progress are likely to fail. Twenty percent (20%) of the indicators are scientific (meteorological to astronomical) in nature, even though the logic employed in interpreting their meaning may not be strictly scientific. An interesting indicator is Muoni River (Table 1, No. 10). This local river was claimed to indicate rainfall failure if it flooded before the start of rains. This river originates in highlands located on the western side of the low-lying study area. This pattern is likely to indicate that enhancing of convergence over the western side of the area would result in rainfall failure in the low lands. Since the area is in the easterly wind region enhanced convergence to the west would enhance the easterly winds which would accelerate and create low-level divergences and swallow cloud development.

As can be seen in Table 1, some indicators e.g. adansonia digitata and asparagus africana are used only for the “Short Rains” season, while others (e.g. acacia mellifera) are used during the “Long Rains” season and yet others are used for both seasons, e.g. acacia tortillis and the cluster of 6 stars.

The indicators are listed in Table 1 below together with their associated indicator characteristics. Unfortunately, some indicators are given in either common or vernacular names due to lack of scientific identification.

It came out from the workshop that farmers from Kathonzweni have several indicators for rainfall onset and the quality of the rainfall season.

Fig.4: A section of participants at Kathonzweni (Makuweini) workshop during a discussion on the traditional indicators among the Akamba community.

No less than 5 different types of indicators are used by farmers in Kathonzweni. It is regretted that some names for the indicators are given in local vernacular (Kikamba) for want of appropriate common English or botanical names. The following were the indicators used:

• Trees
• Position of the setting sun
• Passage of Bees
• Certain birds
• Minzai (a flying insect)
• Clouds and Lightning
• Hill shadows
• Heat/Temperature
• Frogs
• Wind
• Streams/Rivers
• Livestock excitement
• Dust devils
• Star clusters (kiemea)

The indicators may further be categorised into five broad groups as follows:

• Plant indicators (trees).
• Meteorological indicators (sunset, clouds, lightning, heat/temperature, wind, dust devils)
• Animal indicators (insects: bees; minzai; birds; frogs; livestock excitement)
• Astronomical indicators (hill shadows, star clusters)
• Hydrological indicators (streams/rivers)

The farmers believed that the indicators had given the correct signals for the nature of rainfall they were receiving. However, the validity of this statement can only be established if the farmers are interviewed before the rains because memories fade fast and are usually replaced by current experiences if there are no records to fall back to. Up to the day of the meeting, the two birds, Ivutavuti and Kanyange (Table 1, indicator nos. 4 &18, respectively) were reportedly giving correct signals indicating the rains were not over (Ivutavuti, no.4) and the rains would be good (Kanyange, no. 18). No cries of the millipede had been heard to suggest rainfall failure.

Indicators for the Long Rains Season of 2003

The participants stated that they had already seen and were still seeing indicators that the forthcoming “Long Rains” of March – April – May (or MAM) were near. The indicators mentioned were the following:

• Heat/Temperature: The intense heat being experienced up to the time of the meeting was a clear indication that the rains were near. On the day of the meeting, it was so hot some of the participants stated that the day would not end before it rained. Sure enough, there was a short but intense downpour in mid afternoon during the meeting!
• Lighting: Lightning had already been sighted at Ngundi Mwita on the Yatta plateau.

Precursor rains (Ngalule): Normally, there are precursor rains which come during the Short dry season (Jan-Feb) and mark the end of the “Short Rains” growing season. They are characterised by lodging of crops. If they are late in coming, they become precursors of the “Long Rains” and if they are heavy, most farmers start planting for the “Long Rains” season.

These rains had not come and the expectations were for good “Long Rains” since they would not have been weakened by the precursor rains.

Winds: Winds had backed to a North Easterly direction. The early backing of wind is considered an indication that the rains would be good.