THE TRADITIONAL RAINFALL INDICATORS USED TO MONITOR AND PREDICT RAINFALL IN KENYA
introduction | method | indicators | rainmaking | wclim
METHODS USED IN THE STUDY
The methods used in the study include individual interviews, workshops and statistical analyses. The video recording of sessions and interviews was also utilized in information gathering. The ages of people interviewed and participated in the workshops ranged between 40 and 90 years. This age group included the elders of communities who are charged with the responsibility to signal all farming activities for their communities. Themes and probing questions were prepared in advance and the participants were guided in the discussion. The discussions were very interesting and stimulating than was expected, and elders discovered that they had useful knowledge that would be interesting to the people using modern scientific methods.
CLIMATE AND OVERVIEW OF NATURAL DISASTERS AFFECTING THE COMMUNITY
The communities studied in this pilot project are involved in farming and fishing. The communities grow a few crops and keep animals. Both activities, farming and fishing, are affected by weather and climate. The most common weather and climate related hazards affecting the communities are floods, drought, strong winds, lightning and frost. The temperature of the lake water influences fish movement and the communities along the Lake Victoria shore have mastered to monitor the water temperaure by putting their legs in the Lake in the morning and at night. Others also use the temperature of drinking water kept in the pots as away of monitoring the overall atmospheric temperature. The communities use the Lake as a source of fresh water, for sanitation fish and as a means of transport. A number of times the communities face climate related hazards, which at times become disasters. Boats frequently capsize in the lake and Lives are lost. Due to the influence of weather/ and climate on life supporting activities, the communities have mastered some indicators to enable them live with the weather and climate related hazards.The failure of a rainfall season has adverse impact, which include hunger and starvation. Excess rainfall is associated with over swelling of rivers Kuja, Migori, Yala, Miriu, and Nzoia, among others , which overflow their banks causing damage to neighbouring villages and flooding in low lying areas such as Kano plains near Kisumu and Budalangi in Busia. The strong winds are associated with loss of life and and damage to property and destruction to infrastructure (see Banana plantation and a fruit tree destroyed by a twister ).
The Luos, Abasuba and Abaluhya live in the Lake Victoria Basin and the surrounding highlands. The low altitude areas of the Lake Victoria Basin experience two major rainfall seasons, March – May (Long rains) and October – December (Short rains). The “long rains” are the most reliable in the low altitude areas of the basin. The neighbouring highlands have rainfall almost throughout the year with the peaks in March – May, June – August and October – December.
Due to the importance of weather and climate to the communities around the Lake , the communities had to develop traditional methods for monitoring and predicting weather and climate. The sailors had to master the winds over the Lake. These communities also believed in “rain making” and capability to influence lightning as an inherited and spiritually provided talent.
The weather and climate-related hazards frequently affecting the Akamba community are droughts and floods. The study addressed the Akamba of Kathonzweni Division which is in Makueni District bordering Athi River and Yatta Plateau on the eastern side of the country. Its elevation of the ranges Yatta or Nyika plateau from 790 m to 1120 m and the mean annual rainfall is 600-700 mm with a bimodal distribution. The Short rains (October-December) are more reliable and account for 49% of the annual total compared to the Long rains (March-May) which are unreliable and account for 37% of the annual total. Rains during the Short Dry season (January-February) account for 10% of the total and are critical for the success of biennial crops (e.g. pigeon peas, cowpeas, and pumpkins). The mean annual average temperature is in the range 21.6-24oC.
The soils
are of the Yatta or Nyika plateau developed from undifferentiated Basement System
rocks (ferralo-chromic/orthic/ferric Acrisols, with Luvisols and Ferralsols).
They are composed of well drained, moderately deep to deep, dark red to dark
reddish brown, friable to firm, sandy clay to clay with topsoil of loamy sand
to sandy loam in most places.The division is in ecological zone LM5, a livestock
millet zone. Crops grown are short duration maize cultivars, beans, green grams,
sorghum, cowpeas, pigeon peas and millet. The livestock carrying capacity is
2.8-5 ha/LU on mixed short grass savannah or bushland, where buffel grass (cenchrus
ciliaris) and horsetail grass (chloris roxburghiana) are predominant.The environment
is generally harsh and farmers are naturally inclined to take keen interest
in rainfall behaviour, considering that most of the agricultural production
takes place during the more reliable Short rains. Thus, farmers have more than
a passing interest on indicators that would help them to increase their preparedness
for the rains.
Like the Luo, Abaluya and Abasuba of Lake Victoria basin, the Akamba communities
has mastered indicators to monitor and predict rainfall.
Due to some
differences in the indicators used by the respective communities, the indicators
are discussed for each community
