REPUBLIC OF KENYA,MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONS, KENYA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT.Dagoretti Corner, Ngong Road, P. O. Box 30259, Nairobi, Kenya,Telephone:
254-2-567880-5, Fax: 254-2-576955/577373, Telex: 22208,
Cables:” WeatherNairobi”, E-mail: director@lion.meteo.go.ke |
Ref. No. Met / 1622
Date:16 May, 2003
PRESS RELEASE
LONG RAINS SEASONAL REVIEW (UP TO 6 MAY 2003) AND THE FORECAST FOR REST OF MAY 2003
1. SUMMARY
During the first half of April weaker than average high pressures cells were observed over the South Atlantic Ocean, Southwest Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. The cited systems maintained the rain belt to southern Tanzania during this period thus delaying the rains to the third week of April for most parts of the country. Consequently most parts of the country had little or no rainfall during this period. However, stronger pressure systems in the Southern Hemisphere and weak pressures over the Arabian region developed in the second half of April 2003 and created a south-north pressure gradient pushing the rain belt from southern Tanzania to our country by the third week of April.
3 SEASONAL (MARCH TO MAY 2003) RAINFALL REVIEW
Most
parts of the country have received near normal rainfall for the season
(March to May 2003). However the distribution in space and time has been
poor. There was late onset (fourth week of March 2003), over most parts
of the country followed by a long dry spell during the first two weeks
of April over most parts of the country.During the last week of April and
the first week of May 2003, most places except coastal regions realized
heavy downpours thereby achieving near normal rainfall within one to two
weeks. Wajir, Lodwar and Eldoret would be considered to have received above
normal rainfall amounts while the rest of the regions have received normal
rainfall amounts. This rainfall was however received in a very short period
thus resulting in flash floods in some areas. Up to 6th May
2003; Wajir, Lodwar, Eldoret, Meru, Machakos, Narok, Kitale, Makindu, Kisumu,
Kericho, Nakuru, Wilson, Mandera, JKIA, Thika, Embu and Marsabit, had received
175%, 150%, 126%, 117%, 105%, 101%, 92%, 90%, 87%, 87%, 84%, 83%, 83%,
82%, 81%, 76% and 76% respectively of their Seasonal LTM. Coastal areas
and parts of Northeastern (Garissa) had received about 40% of their LTM.
4. IMPACTS
In Western Kenya (Budalangi,
Kano plains, Rachuonyo and Migori), Rift Valley (Trans Nzoia, Kericho and
Uasin Gishu districts), Central highlands (Meru, Nyeri, Muranga and Embu)
and parts of Southeast (Machakos and Yatta) lives and property have been
lost; roads damaged; families displaced; increased cases of malaria, opening
of schools delayed due to severe flooding. Collapse of water storage dam
for Nairobi water supply, Sasumua dam in the Aberdares in Central province,
resulted into water crisis in the supply of clean water for domestic use
in the City. Regeneration of pasture for livestock, good crop performance
and adequate water in the dams (Seven Forks) for power generation, are
expected in areas where near normal to above normal rainfall have been
reported.
5.REST OF MAY 2003 FORECAST
The rainfall forecast for May 2003 is based on regression of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on Kenyan rainfall, SST gradients and the expected evolution of global SST patterns. The rapidly decaying El Nino is also taken into account. It indicates that the rains will continue but gradually reduce in intensity over most parts of the country. The total amounts of rainfall expected in the month are likely to be near normal to above normal rainfall over most areas. The specific outlooks for individual areas are as follows:
Highlands West of the Rift Valley (Kitale, Kericho, Nandi, Eldoret, Kakamega), Lake Basin (Kisumu, Kisii, Busia), Central Rift Valley (Narok, Nakuru), Highlands East of the Rift Valley (Nyeri, Muranga, Kiambu, Embu, Meru), Nairobi area (Dagoretti, Wilson, Eastleigh) and the Coast (Mombasa, Malindi, Kilifi, Lamu); are likely to receive near normal tending to above normal rainfall.
Northwestern regions (Lodwar, Lokichoggio, Lokitaung), Northeastern Kenya (Marsabit, Garbatulla, Wajir, Mandera, Moyale) are likely to receive near normal rainfall.
Southeastern Kenya (Machakos, Makindu, Voi) are likely to receive near normal to below normal rainfall ( See figure 2).
6. CESSATION OF 2003 LONG RAINS
The rains are expected
to gradually reduce in intensity during the second half of May and cease
by the end of the month over the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, Nairobi
area, Southeastern, Northwesten and the Northeastern areas of the country.
The rains are however expected to continue into June over the Coastal strip,
Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Lake Basin and Central Rift Valley.
7. OUTLOOK FOR JUNE-AUGUST 2003
For DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
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